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Papabile (Italian pronunciation: [paˈpabile], pl. papabili) is an unofficial Italian term first coined by Vaticanologists and now used internationally in many languages to describe a cardinal of whom it is thought likely or possible that he will be elected pope. A literal English translation would be "popeable" or "one who might become pope".
In some cases the Cardinals will choose a papabile candidate. Among the papabili cardinals who were elected pope are Eugenio Pacelli (Pius XII), Giovanni Battista Montini (Paul VI), and Joseph Ratzinger (Benedict XVI). However, at times the College of Cardinals will elect a man who was not considered papabile by most Vatican watchers. In recent years those who were elected pope even though they were not considered papabili include John XXIII, John Paul I, and John Paul II. There is a wry saying among Vaticanologists: "He who enters the conclave as Pope, leaves it as a cardinal."
As the cardinals age, the "list" of papabili changes as well. For instance Carlo Maria Martini was thought to be papabile a few years ago, but now he has given up his see (Milan) upon reaching 75 years of age. The list of papabili in the 2005 papal conclave shows who was considered papabile at the death of John Paul II. As Pope Benedict XVI was one of the oldest men on the list, most men on the list remain among his potential successors, but depending on the length of Benedict's pontificate the "papability" of those on it will tend to wane as time goes on, and men formerly seen as papabile will be replaced with younger Cardinals named by Benedict. Because Benedict was the oldest man elected to the Papacy since Pope Clement XII (1730–40), speculation began almost as soon as he was elected Pope on who would succeed him.
In Italian, among other languages, the word papabile is also used on different occasions, such as the election of a President or for less important roles. For example: "Mario Draghi was in the list of the papabili to become governor of the Bank of Italy."
Papabili elected pope
- Francesco Saverio Castiglioni (elected as Pius VIII in 1829)
- Gioachino Pecci (elected as Leo XIII in 1878)
- Giacomo della Chiesa (elected as Benedict XV in 1914)
- Eugenio Pacelli (elected as Pius XII in 1939)
- Giovanni Battista Montini (elected as Paul VI in 1963)
- Joseph Ratzinger (elected as Benedict XVI in 2005)
Papabili not elected
Being seen as papabile, however, is no guarantee of election, and is sometimes seen as a handicap:
- Giuseppe Siri was widely expected to be elected pope in the 1958 and 1963 conclaves and continued to be a prime contender in both 1978 conclaves. In the first of these occasions, Angelo Roncalli, an utterly unexpected choice, was elected and became Pope John XXIII.
- Giovanni Benelli was widely expected to be elected pope in both the August and October 1978 conclaves. In fact he was defeated in both (narrowly the second time). In August, a candidate few saw as papabile, Albino Luciani, was elected and became Pope John Paul I. In October, another such candidate, Karol Wojtyła, was elected as John Paul II.
- Bartolomeo Pacca - experienced diplomat under Pius VII, he was a candidate in 1823 and favoured to win in 1829 but was vetoed by France. Cardinal Castiglioni was elected as Pope Pius VIII.
- Emmanuele de Gregorio - expected to succeed Leo XII and Pius VIII, but never did.
- Mariano Rampolla - Pope Leo XIII's Secretary of State. He was headed for victory in the 1903 conclave only to be vetoed by Krakow Bishop Jan Maurycy Pawel Cardinal Puzyna de Kosielsko on behalf of Austro-Hungarian Emperor Franz Joseph I. With Rampolla blocked, Giuseppe Cardinal Sarto was elected and became Pope Pius X. One of Pius X's first acts was to abolish the rights of states to veto.
- Francis Arinze - Speculated by some media reports as a highly favoured successor to John Paul II but did not gain a substantial amount of votes in the 2005 papal conclave.
Non-papabili elected pope
- Annibale della Genga (elected as Leo XII in 1823)
- Bartolomeo Alberto Mauro Cappellari (elected as Gregory XVI in 1831)
- Giuseppe Sarto (elected as Pius X in 1903)
- Achille Ratti (elected as Pius XI in 1922)
- Angelo Giuseppe Roncalli (elected as John XXIII in 1958)
- Albino Luciani (elected as John Paul I in 1978)
- Karol Wojtyła (elected as John Paul II in 1978)
- Pope John Paul I actually predicted Cardinal Wojtyła — the future John Paul II — would succeed him, and Cardinal Jean-Marie Villot predicted in May 1978 that only Wojtyła could gain the support of two-thirds of the cardinal electors.
- Holy See
- Papal Coronation
- Papal Tiara
- Papal conclave (2005)
- Short list, a analogous secular concept
- Papabili list for 2009 at "Popes-and-Papacy"
- Papabili discussion on The Pope Blog
- Site ranking potential papabili
- BBC News: Bets open on Benedict's successorno:Papabilept:Papabile